A tennis EV tool that compares model probability vs market
I trade tennis and got frustrated that most "prediction" sites show win probability with no reference to the market. Knowing a player has 60% chance to win means nothing if Pinnacle already has them at 62%. The model (XGBoost, ~440k matches, Glicko-2 + Elo features) outputs its own probability, and the app shows the gap against Pinnacle's implied odds — I call it VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds). When that gap is > 12% and the model is on the favorite side, it fires a "Green EV" alert.
